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John Collins
DET · F-C|vs BOS · 2026-10-20
12.7
projavg 13.5 PTS · 0.8 under
Why this number
3 adjustments
PTS vs avg
5 of last 10 over
4/12 vs GSW · 18 PTS
A smaller load on a new offense, from 13% to 12% costs him 1.4 and last year's home games takes another 0.3 — expected 12.7 PTS.
Breaks if·he plays under 18 minutes — minutes swing ±4.8 (~4.6 PTS of minutes downside).
Per minute
Minutes aren't what's moving the points.